Big Ten Pre-Conference Schedule Analysis


I thought some of you might be interested in how the Big Ten scheduled 
themselves this year. Who's playing the tough teams? Who's playing the
powder-puffs? Or, more basically, who are the Big Ten teams playing?

This article is broken into three sections. The first gives a general out-
look for the schedule strength of each Big Ten team, followed by a brief 
commentary.

The second section lists the number of opponents (by conference) the Big
Ten will face in pre-conference.

The last section lists all the opponents (and possible opponents) for each
Big Ten team.

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General Outlook:

1. Purdue
2. Indiana
3. Wisconsin
4. Illinois
5. Minnesota
6. Ohio State
7. Michigan
8. Penn State
9. Northwestern
10. Iowa
11. Michigan State

Purdue has one of the toughest pre-conference schedules in the nation, but
if they're a Top 10 team like all the magazines say, then they should be
able to handle it. There are certain match-ups against Top 25ish teams 
like Kentucky, Xavier (OH), and Louisville. Possible match-ups with North
Carolina, UCLA and UMass could also happen. Add in conference-leading 
opponents like UAB (USA), Valparaiso (Mid-Continent), and Long Island 
Northeast) and you've got one tough schedule. Also consider that all of 
Purdue's match-ups with Top 25 teams are either on neutral courts or away. No 
Mackey Magic on Top 25 teams until Big Ten play ...

Indiana's schedule is a steady staple of challenging yet not overpowering
foes. Kentucky heads the list of Indiana's challenges, followed by possible
match-ups with UNC-Charlotte and Illinois State. Add match-ups with Temple,
Hawaii, UAB, SW Missouri State, and San Francisco and you have a steady
stream of competent teams to play against.

Wisconsin's schedule is both strong and weak. It's spotty. Wisconsin has
certain match-ups with Top 25ish clubs like Fresno State, Illinois State,
and Temple. There's a possibility they'll also play Stanford and Oklahoma.
But after that, there's a big drop-off in competition with teams like
Marquette, Pacific, and Toledo. And it doesn't get any stronger after that.
Wisconsin boasts home advantage for Illinois State, Temple, Marquette,
and Toledo.

Illinois certainly has their work cut out for them. Illinois, expected by
most to finish in the bottom half of the Big Ten, face Top 25ish foes UCLA,
Clemson and Texas. Also consider that Illinois will probably have their
hands full with opponents like Missouri, Dayton, and Bradley. Add it up
and it doesn't look like a pretty W-L record unless Illinois really out-
performs most people's expectations. At least Illinois faces Texas and 
Bradley at home.

Minnesota also faces an uphill battle in pre-conference play. They leave
their roller coaster ride of last summer only to tumble into competition
against Top 25ish teams like Fresno State and Cincinnati. Villanova, Eastern
Michigan, and Nebraska (not powerhouses but not slouches either) also
can be found on their schedule. Add to that the Pre-NIT Tournament, where
Minnesota could face plenty of talented teams if they win their 1st round
against Utah State and advance. Because there are so many possible 
opponents in the NIT, those teams have not been factored into Minnesota's 
schedule strength.

Ohio State gets the "chip on the shoulder" scheduling award. The Buckeyes
certainly aren't scheduling like they're on the bottom of the Big Ten. 
with guaranteed games against Kansas, Vanderbilt, SW Louisiana, USC, and 
Toledo, OSU has their work cut out for them. Add to that possible match-ups
with Hawaii, Virginia, Nebraska, Vanderbilt (again), and/or New Mexico 
State, and it's pretty certain OSU will be cutting their teeth on a chainsaw
in pre-conference play.

Michigan plays Duke in Ann Arbor, hands-down their toughest opponent in 
pre-conference play. Then Michigan plays a few teams close to their own 
predicted level, playing the WAC's UNLV and the MAC's Eastern Michigan. If
Michigan does well in tournament play, they might also face some decent 
challenges in TCU, Syracuse, Iowa State and/or Arkansas. After that, the 
well runs dry as Michigan faces opponents they should easily overpower ...
from the top of the spectrum with Bradley (Missouri Valley) to the bottom
with Towson State (America East).

Penn State, also on the bottom of the Big Ten prediction tables, took a 
more conservative approach than Ohio State did. Playing only 10 pre-conference
games, the Nittany Lion's biggest challenge will either be the SEC's
Mississippi State or the A-10's St. Joseph's, followed by the ACC's North
Carolina State. UTEP, Loyola (Md.), and Bucknell are three other opponents
ranked around Penn State's neighborhood. The games get easier for Penn
State after that.

Northwestern, the predicted basement of the Big Ten, faces their toughest
challenges in the form of Dayton, Seton Hall, and Boston College (which,
granted, are ranked well above NW's place in the universe). Add another 
foe in DePaul from the USA conference, and NW spends the rest of their 
schedule beating up on the dregs of conferences like the Southern (with 
Wofford) and the Mid-Continent (with Chicago State).

Iowa is in the nation's Top 25 (somewhere, according to most) but yet they
are not scheduled to play any Top 25 teams. Granted, if things go well 
in tournament play Iowa MAY play St. John's or Louisville and those are at
least Top 25ish teams if not Top 25 teams. But those match-ups aren't 
certain. The toughest certain match-ups are against Iowa State, Missouri 
and Long Island (and to Iowa's credit, two of those match-ups are away games).
But the rest of Iowa's schedule is against struggling programs such 
as Rice, North Texas, Drake, and Chicago State. If Iowa's young backcourt
gets up to speed (which may be the concern that prompted Coach Davis to 
schedule this way), Iowa should have no trouble going into Big Ten play 
undefeated and have his young players filled with confidence in their 
abilities. But this is not a tough schedule by any stretch of the imagination.

Michigan State outdoes the whole conference in taking it easy. They play
one tough opponent, the A-10's Temple, and then play only nine other games.
And all nine of those opponents are FAR below Michigan State's level of
play. If Izzo's goal (like he said) is for MSU to make it to the Big Dance
this year - they'll have to get there with their W-L record. Because thier
strength of schedule rating is going to stink ...

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Opponents by Conference

ACC			3 to 6
Atlantic 10 		5 to 8
Big East		5 to 8
Big 12			6 to 9
Conf. USA		10 to 14
PAC-10			2 to 5
SEC			4 to 8
WAC			6 to 11

America East		2 to 3
Big Sky			2 to 5
Big South		None
Big West		3 to 4
Colonial		1
Ivy League		0 to 1
MEAC			3
Metro Atlantic		3
MAC			8 to 9
Mid-Continent		3 to 4
Midwestern Collegiate 	8 to 9
Missouri Valley		7 to 10
Northeast		4 to 5
Ohio Valley		2 to 3
Patriot League		3
Southern		7
Southland		1 to 2
Sun Belt		2 to 5
SWAC			0 to 1
Trans America		4
West Coast		2 to 4

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Look by Team (in alphabetical order):

Note: * means there is only a possibility that these teams will play each
other.

Team: Illinois

Projected Placement in Big Ten: Lower Half

Underdog:

UCLA			PAC-10
Clemson			ACC
Texas			Big 12

Evenly Matched (or thereabouts):

Missouri		Big 12
* Dayton		A-10
Bradley			Missouri Valley

Challenged:

* Evansville		Missouri Valley
St. Louis		USA
* Penn			Ivy

Cake-walk:

Illinois-Chicago	Midwestern Collegiate
* Rice			WAC
* South Florida		USA
* Washington St.	PAC-10
Maine			America East
Texas- Pan America	Sun Belt

Note: Illinois will only play 3 of the 6 teams with an asterisk.

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Team: Indiana

Projected Placement in Big Ten: Top 3

Underdog:

Kentucky		SEC

Evenly Matched (or thereabouts):

* UNC-Charlotte		USA
Temple			A-10
* Illinois State	Missouri Valley

Challenged:

Hawaii			WAC
SW Missouri State	Missouri Valley
UAB			USA
San Francisco		West Coast
* South Alabama		Sun Belt

Cake-walk:

Evansville		Miss. Valley
Notre Dame		Big East
* Western Michigan	MAC
UW- Grn. Bay		Midwest Collegiate
* NE Louisiana		Southland
* Alcorn State		SWAC

Note: Indiana will only play 3 of the 6 with an asterisk.

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Team: Iowa

Projected Placement in Big Ten: Top 3

Underdog:

None

Evenly Matched (or thereabouts):

* St. John's		Big East
* Louisville		USA

Challenged:

* Georgia Tech		ACC
Iowa St.		Big 12
Missouri		Big 12
Long Island		Northeast
* Alabama		SEC

Cake-walk:

* Wichita St.		Miss. Valley
Rice			WAC
Bucknell		Patriot
* Hofstra		America East
Weber St.		Big Sky
St. Mary's		Northeast
North Texas		Big West
Drake			Missouri Valley
Chicago State		Mid-Continent

Note: Iowa will only play 3 of the 6 with an asterisk.

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Team: Michigan

Projected Placement in Big Ten: Top 3 to Middle of Conference (Wide variety)

Underdog:

Duke			ACC

Evenly Matched (or thereabouts):

UNLV			WAC
* TCU			WAC
* Syracuse		Big East
Eastern Michigan	MAC
* Iowa State		Big 12
* Arkansas		SEC

Challenged:

None

Cake-walk:

Bradley			Missouri Valley
* Murray State		Ohio Valley
Detroit			Midwest Collegiate
* St. Louis		USA
Western Michigan	WAC
Florida International	Trans America
Tenn.-Chatt.		Southern
Cleveland St.		Midwest Collegiate
Towson St.		America East

Note: Michigan will only play 3 of the 6 teams with an asterisk.

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Team: Michigan State

Projected Placement in Big Ten: Middle of Conference

Underdog:

Temple		A-10

Evenly Matched (or thereabouts):

None

Challenged:

None

Cake-walk:

Detroit			Midwestern Collegiate
* Gonzaga		West Coast
South Florida		USA
Ill.-Chicago		Midwestern Collegiate
* Ark.-Lit'l Rock	Sun Belt
Wright State		Midwestern Collegiate
Cleveland State		Midwestern Collegiate
E. Illinois		Ohio Valley
Central Michigan	MAC
E. Tenn. St.		Southern

Note: Michigan State will only play one of the two teams with an asterisk.

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Team:  Minnesota

Projected Placement in Big Ten: Upper Half

Underdog:

Fresno State		WAC
Cincinnati		USA

Evenly Matched (or thereabouts):

Villanova		Big East
Eastern Michigan	MAC
Nebraska		Big 12

Challenged:

Alabama			SEC

Cake-walk:

Utah State		Big West
West Carolina		Southern
Campbell		Trans America
Florida Atlantic	Trans America
Sacramento St.		Big Sky

Note: Minnesota is one of the teams in the Pre-NIT. If Minnesota beats Utah
State (1st Round, NIT), Minnesota could face up to three more opponents
not listed above (as long as Minnesota keeps winning). There are too many
of these NIT teams to list in this section.

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Team: Northwestern

Projected Placement in Big Ten: Last Place

Underdog:

Dayton			A-10
Seton Hall		Big East
Boston College		Big East

Evenly Matched (or thereabouts):

DePaul			USA

Challenged:

None

Cake-walk:

Siena			Metro Atlantic
Troy State		Trans America
Maryland-East. Shore	MEAC
Sam Houston		Southland
Wofford			Southern
Chicago State		Mid-Continent

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Team:  Ohio State

Projected Placement in Big Ten: Bottom 3

Underdog:

Kansas			Big 12
* Hawaii		WAC
* Virginia		ACC
* Nebraska		Big 12
Vanderbilt		SEC
* Vanderbilt		SEC (OSU has an opportunity to play this team twice)
SW Louisiana		Sun Belt
* New Mexico State	Big West
USC			PAC-10
Toledo			MAC

Evenly Matched (or thereabouts):

South Florida		USA
Cal. State- Northridge	Big Sky
Rider			Metro Atlantic

Challenged:

Tenn.-Chatt.		Southern
Kent			MAC

Cake-walk:

* BYU			WAC
Robert Morris		Northeast

Note: Ohio State will only play 2 of the 6 teams with an asterisk.

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Team: Penn State

Projected Placement in Big Ten: Bottom 3

Underdog:

* Mississippi State	SEC
* St. Joseph's		A-10
North Carolina State	ACC

Evenly Matched (or thereabouts):

UTEP			WAC
Loyola, Md.		Metro Atlantic
Bucknell		Patriot

Challenged:

Virginia Military Inst.	Southern
George Mason		Colonial

Cake-walk:

Monmouth		Northeast
BYU			WAC
Lehigh			Patriot

Note: Penn State will only play one of the two teams with an asterisk.

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Team: Purdue

Projected Placement in Big Ten: Top 2

Underdog:

* North Carolina	ACC
* UCLA			PAC-10

Evenly Matched (or thereabouts):

Kentucky		SEC
Xavier, OH		A-10
Louisville		USA
* UMass			A-10

Challenged:

UAB			USA
* San Francisco		West Coast
* SW Louisiana		Sun Belt
Long Island		Northeast
Valparaiso		Mid-Continent
Providence		Big East

Cake-walk:

* Seton Hall		Big East
Houston			USA
NE Louisiana		Southland
Tenn-Martin		Ohio Valley
Florida A&M		MEAC
* Idaho State		Big Sky

Note: Purdue will only play 3 of the 7 teams marked with an asterisk.

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Team: Wisconsin

Projected Placement in Big Ten: Upper Half

Underdog:

Fresno State		WAC
* Oklahoma		Big 12
Illinois State		Missouri Valley
Temple			A-10
* Stanford		PAC-10

Evenly Matched (or thereabouts):

None

Challenged:

Marquette		USA
Pacific			Big West
* Valparaiso		Mid-Continent
* Butler		Midwest Collegiate
Toledo			MAC

Cake-walk:

Pepperdine		West Coast
Coppin State		MEAC
Ball State		MAC
* Montana		Big Sky

Note: Wisconsin will only play 2 of the 5 teams with an asterisk.

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If you have questions or comments, you know where to send them.

Later,

Rufus Talladega